Ebola Risk Makes School Resumption a High Risk Strategy

analysis

Lagos, Nigeria — Has the Nigerian Ministry of Education taken a high-risk decision to bring forward re-opening of primary and secondary schools before the country's Ebola outbreak is certifiably over?

The evidence indicates that this may be so.

Two full incubation periods (21 days x 2 / 42 days) without cases is the global health standard for declaring an Ebola outbreak over in a particular location.

Going by the official Ministry of Health Ebola update (of 1st September) - "...the number of contacts under surveillance in Lagos stands at 72 while in Port Harcourt, the total number of contacts under surveillance stands at 199" - i.e. for a minimum of 21 days. The update further confirmed that "No contact in Port Harcourt has completed the 21 day observation period". The Ministry of Health has also warned that it is likely there will be more confirmed cases of Ebola

Yet - on the 5th of September, the Ministry of Education announced that it has reversed its earlier decision (of 26th August) to postpone schools resumption till the 13th of October - and announced that schools would now re-open sooner - on the 22nd of September.

What has prompted this apparently hasty review?

Would it not have been much safer - to wait for some time after the outcomes of the minimum 21 day incubation period covering the last batch of persons placed under surveillance - before reviewing the date for school resumption?

There Is Far Too Much At Stake For Questions Not To Be Asked.

Moving millions of children and adolescents within and across 36 states of the federation before the Ebola outbreak is fully under control may turn out to be an unwise decision.

The total population of students in Nigeria surpasses the combined population of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone where the current Ebola epidemic has been declared by experts as out of control: Pre-primary (ages 3 to 5) population of Nigerian students is estimated at 15.9 million; Primary (ages 6 to 11) 27.04 million; Secondary (ages 12 to 17) 21.8 million; and Tertiary (ages 18 years and above) 15.3 million.

The populations of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone are: 11.4 million; 4.1 million; and 5.9 million respectively.

Throwing about 80 million Nigerian children, adolescents, and young adults - (across an estimated 100,000 or more schools) into a potential Ebola mix, at a time when an abundance of caution is crucial - can hardly be described as a low, or even medium risk strategy.

Is the Call for Caution Misplaced?

The evidence from Liberia and Sierra Leone where there have been riots, disruption to food production, manufacturing, mining, education, retail; and announcements of nationwide lock downs suggests not.

To quote the Deputy director of US Center for Disease Control's National Center for Emerging Zoonotic and Infectious Diseases:

"If there was no cases identified after today, we would still be committed to waiting 42 days from today to declare the outbreak fully over. The concern is that the outbreak can be reseeded much like a forest fire, with sparks from one tree reseeding it. That is clearly what happened in Liberia.

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